Why the country could lose 80 million people

Japan faces a population-time bomb that is different from anything in modern history. The country that once seemed ready to become an economic superpower is now shrinking rapidly, with forecasts suggesting that by the end of the century, it could lose nearly two-thirds of its current population.

“Public Mortality Rate” phenomenon

The birth rate in Japan has dropped to an unprecedented low, with only 720,988 babies born in 2024, the ninth consecutive year of decline, the lowest number since Record Begins 125 years ago. Although the government aims to encourage childbirth, this is 5% less than the previous year. Meanwhile, Japan Record About 1.62 million people died during the same period, meaning more than two people died in each new baby born.

Although many developed countries face a decline in birth rates, the situation in Japan is particularly serious. According to the 2023 Ministry of Health, its fertility rate is the estimated average number of children in a woman’s life, much lower than the 2.1 required to maintain population stability, according to data from the Ministry of Health in 2023. Associated Press. In sharp contrast to countries like the United States, births outside marriage are common, with only a small percentage of Japanese babies born from unmarried mothers creating a strong correlation between marriage and birth rates.

Despite great concern about the decline in birth rates in Japan, the country is simultaneously experiencing what demographers call “many deaths”. The annual death toll has soared to about 1.6 million, the highest in modern wartime history. Over the next 50 years, about 80 million Japanese will die—about two-thirds of the current population.

Impact on Tokyo and other major cities

While rural areas of Japan feel that the population crisis is the worst, major urban centers like Tokyo are not immune. Despite attracting internal immigration from other parts of Japan, Tokyo’s population is still aging rapidly. By 2054, it is estimated that more than 30% of Tokyo’s population will exceed 65%, which changes the long-standing one of the most vibrant cities in the world.

These implications can be seen throughout Japanese cities: closed stores, underutilized infrastructure and increasingly dominated housing complexes by older residents. Even Tokyo’s famous energy and crowded trains may gradually give way to a quieter, older city with different needs and rhythms.

National burden rate rises

One of the key factors driving Japan’s low birth rate is the increased financial burden on working citizens. In recent decades, the national burden rate, percentage of income and percentage of social insurance premiums have risen sharply, with many workers close to 50%. This is called the “five public, five private” phenomenon, which means half of the income belongs to the government.

As working adults face higher premiums to support the growing older population, they earn smaller incomes for themselves and potential families. Ironically, pain: policies aimed at supporting “destiny” make it unlikely that these descendants will exist.

The way forward

Japan is not alone in facing a population decline, although the case is one of the worst. Countries such as South Korea, Italy and parts of Eastern Europe all face similar challenges. Those who have managed to partially reverse fertility, such as France and Sweden, have implemented comprehensive family support policies, including generous parental leave, accessible parenting and housing assistance.

However, cultural differences make direct policy difficult. What works in Nordic countries may not translate directly into Japanese backgrounds. The most promising approach may combine elements of multiple successful models, suitable for specific situations in Japan.

Perhaps the most critical insight from the Japanese experience is that protecting future generations requires supporting those who have created these descendants now. Policies that increase immediate financial pressure on workers to maintain welfare for older people have proven counterproductive effects on population stability.

Creating an environment where young people can achieve financial security, affordable housing and balance work with family life is essential for any population recovery hope. This means not only children’s allowances, but also basic reforms to Japan’s economic structure, labor market and social security system.

Kazuhisa Arakawa, a researcher and columnist who specializes in 1999, is a researcher and columnist who specializes in 1999. Famous“The future is just a continuation of the present.” If Japan cannot live in young people, it cannot expect them to create their own future.

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